KABUL - Afghan father-of-four Mohammad Nasir has a secret he's been keeping from his family.
The aid worker pulls a television bench out from the living-room wall of his Kabul home. Behind it is a carved out shelf, hiding what he hopes will keep loved ones safe when Western troops withdraw by the end of 2014 -- an AK-47 assault rifle.
Arms purchases are soaring in Afghanistan, along with the price of weapons, a sign that many Afghans fear a return of the Taliban, civil war or rising lawlessness.
An assault rifle cost $400 a year ago. Today, some arms dealers are selling them for triple the price.
And it's not just ordinary Afghans who are buying. Warlords who control militias, and former anti-Soviet mujahideen fighters are also boosting the trade.
"Whenever you turn on the TV or radio, the discussion is 2014. I'm not feeling safe now, it's become like doomsday for Afghans," said Nasir, 48, storing the polished second-hand rifle and slamming the TV unit back against the wall.
"People are saying security will collapse, or soldiers will join warlords or the Taliban, so we need something to protect our families when there's a crisis."
The brisk arms business is complicating the government's efforts to pacify a country where the Taliban can strike virtually anywhere, ethnic tensions can easily ignite violence, and warlords are constantly jockeying for influence.
Afghanistan wants to project an image of stability ahead of 2014, a critical year when presidential elections will be held and the 350,000 Afghan security force will take over security.
Any upheaval could also encourage regional powers like Iran and Pakistan to try and gain influence before the Afghan endgame, a widespread fear among officials and ordinary Afghans.
President Hamid Karzai calls the talk of chaos, Western media "propaganda", and says Afghan security forces have made great progress.
But for many Afghans, the threat of a descent into chaos is real so a growing number are investing in weapons, despite exorbitant costs. The average Afghan family earns only about $200 a month.
FEAR OF 2014 BATTLEFIELDS
Reuters spoke to buyers and sellers of illegal arms in five provinces and each cited the foreign troop withdrawal as the main driver of the underground trade.
"More people are buying weapons now, some to protect themselves from kidnappers and robbers and others in anticipation of things getting worse," said a Kabul resident in his fruit shop, where a verse from the Koran on the wall calls for God to guide Muslims on a straight path.
He bought a handgun illegally for $500, a model his dealer says now fetches $1,000.
"If the situation changes in 2014 this area will once again become a battlefield between former warlords who are still powerful," he said.
The government has highlighted 2014 as a year to invest in Afghanistan, which has relied on foreign aid for its economic lifeline, and take advantage of its cheap labour and land leases. Last month it held a televised conference promoting the country's natural resources and its industrial potential.
In the 10 years following 2014, the government hopes revenues from oil, natural gas, iron, copper and other mining ventures will generate $4 billion in annual revenue.
But in the north, which is home to untapped oil and gas resources, warlords and their supporters are now re-arming for fear militants may seize power again, say residents.
Afghanistan's largest foreign investment project, the Aynak copper deposit in Logar province, lies in one of the country's most dangerous regions just south of the capital, Kabul.
Rocket attacks this year saw its Chinese workers temporarily flee the project, which is run by China Metallurgical Group (MCC) and Jiangxi Copper.
AK-47: A LEGACY OF WAR
Afghanistan has seen little peace in three decades. The American-backed mujahideen drove out the Russians in 1989 after 10 years of occupation, but American interest faded quickly.
